2014年1月3日星期五

President Bernanke notes

http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/bernanke20140103a.htm


The Bloomberg's headline and other media makes so different if you compare what they have written.
Important points:
1.Fed Transparency
2. Basel III regulations/ shadow banking
3. Interest rate: restricted low bound of FED fund rate.
4. Forward Interest rate, zero lower bound interest rate tools.
5. Unemployment rates

There are two things that must be addressed:
The monetary policy and the economic headwinds

Monetary Policy:
2007  Interest Rate 5.25 to 0.25

Measure of the 2007:
 "Federal Reserve turned to two alternative tools: enhanced forward guidance regarding the likely path of the federal funds rate and large-scale purchases of longer-term securities for the Federal Reserve's portfolio." (FED)

Conclusion: "However, as I will discuss, the recovery has faced powerful headwinds, suggesting that economic growth might well have been considerably weaker, or even negative, without substantial monetary policy support."

The negative aspects of the US Economy: 
"Large-scale asset purchases have increased the size of our balance sheet and created substantial excess reserves in the banking system. "

The hold-back of  elements of the US Economy: 
Unemployment 
The debt ceiling of US 
Some unexpected factors 
Event of the Europe Crisis

Trading view: Confirm the strategy, no need to modify right now 

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