This week phew!

This week is very exciting and the gold, Aussi, yen and eur。

Most importantly is the market returns to its vitality esp for US dollar index, it is a very strong index and indicator for the forex policy for US. Last week all the non-US currencies pairs just depreciate a lot  against the USD.

This week, the mixed data yesterday, the unemployment claims which is under expectation of the estimated and the most interestingly is that the gold market suddenly doesn't know where to go! Since the data is so close to the last release. Then other data come to help, esp after the release of flash manufacturing PMI and Existing Home Sales, the gold rose to six-week high. This is a very good news and I just long gold with small position in the news trading moment.

On the other hand, I think the stock market will mirror everything in the market, like yesterday, the Dow Jones and S&P just down and VIX index has rose a new short record high. The US stock market just wobbling in the high position, it is very normal that the retraction from a high level.

To be mentioned is the Copper and Zine futures, since at the same time the PMI for China has  been down to  51.3 (HSBC)




US Dollar Index due to the policy of the country, it will not rise too sharply right now.



Now the gold has been break the bound but it needs to be confirmed at this moment. So I will wait and see. And I will attempt to short Aussi again due to the performance of the Copper and Zinc futures. And long a little bit of yen. But now I can't see the clear direction of EUR and GBP, the Europe is just a mess.

As for US stock, I will short at this time. And China's stock as for sure the bank will come to rescue.
The market begins to rock n' roll , let's wait and see!!!

Gold to be marked

I was just talking yesterday that the gold has reached resistance aha! IT REALLY IS, AND IT IS SO INTERESTING!!

LET'S CELEBRATE THE MARKET WITH US BACK FROM HOLIDAAY!
The 1253 to 1257 is a very strong resistance but MACD indicator is still really strong.

I sensed a lot of silly investment banks are praising the new economy recovery these days, they think the unemployment was part due to to the structure and seasonal retractions. They think the Fed is underestimated the data. How eager they are to long for the strong US dollars huh?

Another silly bubble will come if they do!!
 

Happy Martin Luther King

Today it is the off but I am very busy with the homework. The forex market is very quiet and esp the gold is just like dead meat.

The 1245 to 1253 will be a very strong resistance for the gold so after a rise just few days ago I think this will will be a down trend a little bit to be bounded by 1245 to 1253. However, once the gold hits above 1253 and will go for a very strong position, the gold will be bull in the first half of the year. And at the same time, I hold the opinion that the economy of the US will not be recovered that fast. Therefore, A little be cautious move and a little little bit of adventure will add more spicy flavor to the market. So I will short fast this week with small positions.

And as for EUR, today's data didn't seen good at all and it is quite dangerous to short again but now the price has reached a strong pivot on 1.35390 so let's do a little long first. Tomorrow will be very important for EUR since the German Economic Sentiment and this will determine the direction of EUR.

Wednesday, the AUD will have new moves on the CPI data and GBP on MPC votes.

this weeks trading pairs:
AUD/USD, GBP/USD, GBP/JPY, XAU/USD, EUR/USD, NZW/USD

The tapering effect, I suppose that the Stock market will be hitting the platform now and must down for the next few years. The forever good is no good. The rise, the palatal, and the fall this is how the world goes.

The usual and effective indicators I used in forex market

SMA(Simple Moving Average)
EMA  (expostional Moving average):  focused on recent data  10days
Pittbull book(best trader's favorite)

Stochastic Oscillator: Momentum Indicator
The fast and slow of the stochastic oscillator

The technical analysis best works in daily chart.

Relative Strengh Index(RSI)

Moving Average Covergence Divergence (MACD)
Bolling Bands ( SMA with upper and lower bands)
Once it touches the lower band, it it a sign of strong buy
Average True Range

The outlook for the next week

The forex market will seem to be dull next week I presume since there is not so much data released.

There are some important outlooks for Tuesday, core retail sales m/m, retail sales m/m

U.S. aggregate retail sales excluding automobile and gasoline sales, which are excluded due to their volatility. The figures are released monthly by the U.S. Department of Commerce about two weeks after the end of the reference month. As consumer spending accounts for more than two-thirds of the U.S. economy, the core retail sales data is an important indicator about the health of the overall economy.

This is the December data, due to the christmas, I think it will be a bit high but I still don't think that US now will gain a strong momentum in consuming. 

Wedsday: PPI m/m USD  

And also  the AUD with unemployment rate and employment change 

Thursday with Core CPI m/m and unemplyment claims 

Friday with building permits: 

Due to the release of the data, we should pay attention to the currencies pairs: 

AUD/USD, AUD/JPY, GBP, XAU/USD 

I still long AUD in the medium term since I have preference in AUD and their economy since they have very low ratio of debt. 



Keep a very fixed eye on US dollar Index it is bounding so last week the non-US currencies just skyrocketed so I think this week they will now have a fast rise but keep a quite steady bounding area.

1/10 A tough War

Today it surprises everyone on the unemployment rate and claims, it is only 75K and and it is really lower the expectation of the market.

The market just fluctuates a lot and it is really a tough war to go.

Although I was short gold at the very beginning and stop loss of 30 bucks. But I act swiftly, I am so sure that I must keep me on the right track, I long gold immediately with MQL instruction. I long 1.5 hand this morning, my strategy on news strategy is that, make a bet but act quickly!! And make a very small bet! Indeed, this strategy is particularly true in this large fluctuation. 

Sometimes I will do the scalping in this trading and it also works. 
In the market, you don't have to be greedy but you have to be discpline! 
 

And it works on the 1236 , I also long EUR at the same time.


I am still afraid of the US economy is wobbling along the way!

Let's wait and see!!

What a tough war I combat this morning!

1/8 Trading

Since  today the ADP data is beating expectation and gold dropped and I cleared all the position of gold since they have a strong sell at 1236.

However, as for others, I can't see any point of buying or selling in my system so I remain my 0 position today.

There will be more data releasing today, the unemployment rate of EUR remains the same as the last release but German gain a good sign in trade balance. Since it is a positive number, 17.8 billion . German gains really strong import sign and they have to pay for more foreign currencies on importing so it is not good for the EURO. In contrast, US gains a negative number this month which means export is more than import which will give rise demand on USD DOLLER. Today we will have FOMC meeting minutes which will be very important for the "head" to judge the economy so it will be safe until the FOMC meeting is done when we do the trading.

Good Luck!

1/7 trading journal

I close the gold position but I have to stop loss the AUD/USD neglecting the fact that the Aisan Stock market will have greatly impact on AUD currency pairs since Australia  export commodities and a lot of steel to China. And apart from that, the Sydney market is closely related to China's market at the time zone, if all the markets in Asia perform worst than the market, and this will provide a very strong support for YEN. Yesterday, the trade balance for AUD is -0.12 billion, which means (import-export) this gains the surplus on the trade, and it is not a good sign for the AUD due to the demand-supply. Today, US also released the trade balance which is also very important and the actual release is better than the previous so it is quite good for the USD dollar.

The second fact I have to mention is that the fluctuation during the release data  can be huge, like yesterday, when the ISM released, this data caused the GOLD to drop dramatically and if  you don't place any stop loss order on it, you may suffer a great loss on this.

Anyway, the trading rules in USA is a little bit different from other countries and the orders follow the FIFO rules to do it . So if you know this rule, please adjust the leverage and positions in trading any pairs of currencies.

And also, the difference between the FSA(The regulation of currency in London) and USA is that FSA can allow more leverage and lower margin level on the premiums. Like Oanda, the customers must assure the 50% of the margin but Iron Forex is only 20%, so the USA regulation will be more stricter than any other countries. And also, Onada didn't provide any gold leverage on trading, so be careful when you sail the ship.

Based on the technical analysis, the gold will be dropped a little bit and EUR I will leave an empty position today.

1/6 The Big week Began

This is my first class day, what a semester i'm extremely busy on it!

However, I won't give up trading forex in a way. This week, esp in Wed and Fri, we have to be extremely cautious on FOMC minute and non-farm employment.

Technical speaking, the gold now hits it resistance on bounding 1236 and 1240,  let's wait and see whether the data is hitting the pivot again or drop back from the original area.

As for last week,  losing two orders of EUR/USD, I begin to short EUR/ USD and gain about 3000 pips in return. I use multi-framework  strategies to make sure I am doing right.

And as for the AUD/USD, I found it would be hard to do at first but later it is okay.

My biggest gain is on gold nearly 20000 pips with 5 hands and it is a really good news.

This week strategy pre-set:
The data: The FOMC minute and the nomination of Janet Yellen
If the FOMC minute is dovish and the nominator must be JY, the gold may break the resistance to long gold. If not, retreat it and do sell and find another buying point.

If the non-farm beats up the expectation, short gold directly doing a stop-loss preset. If the non-farm is not expected, than just continue to long gold with technical analysis. (However, ADP released on Weds is also important but not a determinant effect on non-farm payment).

Now, I also give prospect to the A share market in China, with the tapering expectation on QE. China's shares have been slumped greatly on Monday. Soros writes a column on that and it would be extremely to short China.

In the second half of 2014, pay really good attention to the interest rate of USA and it would be a really strong indicator a lot of signs of recovery!!

Also, keep closer look on USD Index, it is a really effective indicator and US government depends on buying/selling bonds and trade balance to keep the USD in a very steady condition. Therefore, it is a amazing tool to study the trade balance deficit/ surplus and bonds buying right now.

I hope I can go through programming classes, what a semester!!!

Cheerrrs for my new semester. I hope I can go through it!!!

From Jan 6 to 10 Trading important notes

The important dates and data: 

Monday: 

USD:  ISM/ FED nomination vote 

Tue:

USD:Trade Balance 

EUR:CPI estimated 

Wed: 

ADP

FOMC meeting minutes

Thurs: 

USD: unemployment claims 

EUR: ECB Conference 

Fri: 

USD: unemployment rate 

          Non-Farm Employment Change

EUR: 

http://www.forexcrunch.com/category/forex-weekly-outlook/eur-usd-outlook/

The ECB rate decision is all important, especially Draghi’s press conference. In addition, service PMIs, German inflation data, retail sales,  employment data will move markets.

1.  German CPI: Monday. The inflation rate in Germany picked up in November, according to preliminary data showing a 0.2% monthly rise, following a 0.2% fall in the previous month. The reading was higher than the 0.1% rise expected by economists. However inflation remains relatively subdued.
2. Services PMIs: Monday. Spain’s service sector expanded in November to the highest level in more than three years, reaching 51.1 after posting 49.6 in October. 11-month business index edged up to 51.8 from 54.2 in October, the highest since July 2007. The increase suggests the service sector is growing at a satisfactory pace preparing for the holiday season. Meanwhile, Italy’s services PMI unexpectedly shrank in November, dropping to 47.2 from 50.5 in October, missing expansion. The gloomy data raises serious doubts regarding Italy’s ability to exit from recession in the fourth quarter. The Eurozone service sector expanded to 51.2 in November despite mixed readings, following 50.9 in October, beating market consensus of 50.9 reading. Italian is expected to reach48.9 and the Eurozone services PMI is expected to be 51.2.
3. German Retail Sales: Tuesday, 7:00. German retail sales plunged unexpectedly in October by 0.8% following a 0.6% fall in the previous month, missing market predictions for a 0.5% rise. Bookstores and jewelers experienced the sharpest declines. Compared with a year earlier, retail sales dropped 0.2%. Nonetheless, analysts forecast a rise in retail sales due to the holiday season. A rise of 0.5% is expected now.
4. German Unemployment Change: Tuesday, 8:55. German unemployment increased by 10,000 in November, rising for the fourth consecutive month following a 3,000 gain in October. Economists expected no change. German economy growth trend is endangered by the backdrop of a fragile Eurozone recovery. Furthermore, a planned minimum wage law domestically threatens to spike costs. Economists expect little change in the coming months and the jobless rate will continue to climb. A drop of 1,000 is expected in the number of unemployed.
5. CPI Flash Estimate: Tuesday, 10:00. Flash CPI edged up 0.9% in November, exceeding expectations of a 0.8% rise and following a 0.7% in October. Core CPI also beat forecasts. The ECB cut its benchmark rate from 0.50% to 0.25% claiming there are  low chances for increased inflation. A rise of 0.9% is forecast now.
6. German Trade Balance: Wednesday, 7:00. Germany’s trade surplus contracted in October to 16.8 billion Euros from 18.7 billion in September amid a rise in imports exceeding exports. In seasonally adjusted terms, German exports reached 92.9 billion euros ($127 billion) in October, rising mildly from 92.7 billion euros in September. Imports, on the other hand, rose sharply by 2.8% to 76.1 billion euros from 74.0 billion euros. An expansion to 18.9 billion trade surplus is expected now.
7. Retail Sales: Wednesday, 10:00. Retail sales in the Euro area continued to fall in October dropping 0.2% after a 0.6% decline in the preceding month, adding concerns that the fragile economic recovery in the 17-country eurozone is losing momentum in November. Declines in the PMIs for Italy and France raises the possibility that these economies will remain in recession in the fourth quarter. However Germany’s robust economic growth tips the scale for the Eurozone as a whole. A gain of 0.2% is forecasted.
8. Unemployment Rate: Wednesday, 10:00. The eurozone’s unemployment rate declined for the first time since 2011, falling to 12.1% in October, from 12.2 in the previous month. There are huge disparities in unemployment rate between EU countries. The unemployment rate in Spain and Greece is about 27%, while Austria’s is only 5%. ECB president Mario Draghi remarked that low inflation and weak economic growth are the dominant characteristics of the region. The European Commission has forecast growth of 1.1% for 2014 and 1.7% for 2015. The eurozone’s unemployment rate is expected to remain 12.1%.
9. German Factory Orders: Wednesday, 11:00. German factory orders plunged 2.2% in October, missing forecasts for a 0.4% decline, following a 3.1% gain in September. The weak figure suggests recovery has its ups and downs. Orders increased 1.9% from a year ago. Domestic demand was the main growth factor for Germany. the European Central Bank forecasted German economy will expand 1.1% in 2014. An increase of 1.2% is expected now.
10. German Industrial Production: Thursday, 11:00. German industrial production continued to contract in October losing further momentum, with a 1.2% fall in October, following a 0.7% drop in the previous month. The reading was contrary to analysts’ predictions of a 0.8% rise. Meanwhile, foreign trade surplus narrowed to 16.8 billion euros due to a rise in imports for domestic demand. Analysts expected a gain of 0.8%. Germany’s large trade surplus has provoked criticism from a number of struggling EU members and the US recently asked Germany to rely more on domestic demand and limit its exports. A rise of 1.6% is forecasted now.
11. ECB rate decision and press conference: Thursday, 12:45, press conference begins at 13:30. The ECB is unlikely to change its policy in January, but could certainly hint about looser policy in the next meeting. There are a few encouraging signs in the old continent, but financial conditions remain tight, and deflation is a threat, especially with a strong value of the currency. Draghi tends to zig-zag between an optimistic message to a pessimistic one. After sending a calm one in December, we can expect him to weigh on the euro this time, especially if the negative deposit rate option receives a bigger hint than usual.
12. French Industrial Production: Friday, 7:45. French industrial output stubbornly remained in the contraction territory falling 0.3% in October, missing market forecast of a 0.2% rise. This decline followed another unexpected 0.5% drop in September. The negative readings contradict the 0.4% rise in manufacturing production. Bank of France projected French gross domestic product will gain 0.5% in the last quarter of 2014, 0.1 percentage point more than the previous first estimate. However following the string of disappointing data, it seems the French economy is not advancing as it should. A gain of 0.6% is predicted.

* All times are GMT

Euro/dollar began the week with an attempt to recapture the 1.3830 line (mentioned last week). The failed attempt proved that the Christmas surge was indeed a false break. From there, it was all downhill, with a short lived recovery attempt that stalled at 1.3675 in a perfect manner. After losing uptrend support, the pair stopped only at 1.3588.

Technical lines from top to bottom:

1.4036 was a separator back in 2011, and awaits the pair if it breaks above 1.40. 1.3940 was a peak in September 2011, over two years ago, and is just before the round number of 1.40.

1.3832 was the 2013 peak (excluding the post-Christmas break). The failure of the pair to get close to this line for a second time might make it a top for a long time, despite the false break. 1.38 is a round number and also worked as a temporary cap during that period of time and also in October 2013.

1.3710 was the previous 2013 peak, and served as a clear separator. The pair needed a big trigger to break above this line, and when it lost it again, the fall was painful. 1.3675 capped the pair in December and also provided some support back in October. It also stalled a recovery in January 2014.

1.3615 worked as resistance in December, as an upper bound for the range. It is followed by 1.3525, which was the lower bound during this period and also had the opposite role in early 2013.

1.3440 worked as a clear separator in early November 2013 and is a key line to the upside. The round number of 1.34 worked as resistance several times in 2013, and is strengthening now.

1.3320 worked as a double top in early September and it was crossed only with a Sunday gap. It remains a clear separator of ranges. It is followed by 1.3240, which capped the pair in April and also had a role in August. It worked as support in September.

1.3175 capped the pair during July 2013. 1.3100 is worked as temporary resistance in December 2012 and is becoming more important once again, after capping a recovery attempt in June and then in July and providing support in September.

Uptrend support convincingly broken

From early November, the pair trended higher, riding above an uptrend support line. As mentioned last week, it was hard for the pair to hold onto the line for too long. The break below was certainly painful. The downtrend black thick line emphasizes the lower high the pair reached: from 1.3830 in October to 1.38 in December, and was respected.

I am bearish on EUR/USD

The holidays are over and reality is back in town. Tighter credit conditions in the euro-zone are weighing on growth and could send the area back to recession. Deflation is still possible, despite denials. Draghi could now paint a more worried picture for 2014 and make bigger hints of action. A negative interest (certainly a possibility in Q1) could become a more serious threat.

In the US, positive signs continue into 2014. Non-Farm Payrolls could give the greenback another boost and raise expectations of an accelerated taper. The breakdown of support and the return to the lows seen in December are also a warning sign.

President Bernanke notes

http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/bernanke20140103a.htm


The Bloomberg's headline and other media makes so different if you compare what they have written.
Important points:
1.Fed Transparency
2. Basel III regulations/ shadow banking
3. Interest rate: restricted low bound of FED fund rate.
4. Forward Interest rate, zero lower bound interest rate tools.
5. Unemployment rates

There are two things that must be addressed:
The monetary policy and the economic headwinds

Monetary Policy:
2007  Interest Rate 5.25 to 0.25

Measure of the 2007:
 "Federal Reserve turned to two alternative tools: enhanced forward guidance regarding the likely path of the federal funds rate and large-scale purchases of longer-term securities for the Federal Reserve's portfolio." (FED)

Conclusion: "However, as I will discuss, the recovery has faced powerful headwinds, suggesting that economic growth might well have been considerably weaker, or even negative, without substantial monetary policy support."

The negative aspects of the US Economy: 
"Large-scale asset purchases have increased the size of our balance sheet and created substantial excess reserves in the banking system. "

The hold-back of  elements of the US Economy: 
Unemployment 
The debt ceiling of US 
Some unexpected factors 
Event of the Europe Crisis

Trading view: Confirm the strategy, no need to modify right now 

1/3 Trading

Yesterday, I make a mistakes on long Euro so I stop loss 2 orders but with only 1 hand, so the loss is acceptable to me.

And the gold is winning very strong position starting long at 1215, which has really good support on RSI, Moving Average, and MACD indicators. This is a very good beginning, so I intend to long a little bit in the near future to make more position on gold.

Today, President B, speaks but I think this will cause relatively great fluctuation in the market. "Queen B"just like Gandalf one ring to rule them all. So I must be very cautious on today's afternoon. And I expect that B will confirm the tapering, however, emphasizing on workforce situation in USA, which is crucial point right now.

Sadly speaking, I think there are very crucial problems for USA facing right now:
(1) The debt ceiling, which curb the lending and expanding the economy of USA. If you look back the history, US has borrowed everything to be rich.
(2) The structured unemployment issue. USA has to wait until the unemployment shifting, which means a lot of unemployment in 2008 will acquire new skills to find a new job on the market and at the same time the corporate needs times to recover.
(3) The "too big to fail problem": Although Queen B has been successfully curbed the downfall of the economy, however, the overdose side effect will happen in the late years such as light bubble on US dollar asset markets. And the mirage of the BULL market so I presumed that this it the longest recover of the economy.

To sum up. if you are alive, you suffer.

1/2/2014 market trading

Today the market is a little bit odd and the outlook for the European market seems dim so the EUR/USD drops a lot.

There are two important market news today:
The first is the unemployment claims, and the other is the ISM manufacturing:
The unemployment claims are reached from 339 K lower than expected and ISM remains expectation.

The market for gold reacts not expected at the moment and EUR has been drawn down to 1.36398.
However, I think I should long gold and EUR at this moment since in Day time frame the moving average and MACD has strong support for the EUR and gold.

That is to say long gold whatsoever!