The 2014 trend in forex analysis

Year 2014 would be very important for a lot of countries. A lot of financial institutions predict that US will exit QE since it has been started tapering in December 2013. However, my view on US economy remains neutral, which means that I am worried that US can not gain strong economy recover in 2014.

According to the FOMC conference in December, President Bernanke, although focusing on the tapering, puts great emphasis on unemployment rate and the US market assets.

If we check the US market assets closely enough, we will find that, the housing market has been recovered the fastest, but deducted from core CPI effect, the market is still soft. And we look at other markets in stocks, the average corporate gain for USA in 2013 looks really good but neglected the fact that a lot of corporations are hoarding cash instead of expanding new business. What's more, if you look at the S&P index, it seems more gain than loss if you have strong buy in 2013, that would be a good gain! However, this is actually a mirage for real economy, which means the QE effect has just been flown to shadow banking and large corporations instead of saving the real economy.

The 2014 Jan to March Strategy: 

The mid-term focus: 

(1) The unemployment rate of US 

(2) The FOMC tapering 

(3) The European interest rate and monetary policy 

As for gold, now the gold price is bounding between 1203 to 1220, but I will assume that this is a strong buying band at this time since I don't think US economy will be on a quickly rise. So I will do the bounding trading between this and buy once it hits the pivot. 

And in the recent three months, I will on hold the AUD/USD, and I assume that it will have a strong rebound in the mid term. 

I will also long oil in US dollars.