This week phew!

This week is very exciting and the gold, Aussi, yen and eur。

Most importantly is the market returns to its vitality esp for US dollar index, it is a very strong index and indicator for the forex policy for US. Last week all the non-US currencies pairs just depreciate a lot  against the USD.

This week, the mixed data yesterday, the unemployment claims which is under expectation of the estimated and the most interestingly is that the gold market suddenly doesn't know where to go! Since the data is so close to the last release. Then other data come to help, esp after the release of flash manufacturing PMI and Existing Home Sales, the gold rose to six-week high. This is a very good news and I just long gold with small position in the news trading moment.

On the other hand, I think the stock market will mirror everything in the market, like yesterday, the Dow Jones and S&P just down and VIX index has rose a new short record high. The US stock market just wobbling in the high position, it is very normal that the retraction from a high level.

To be mentioned is the Copper and Zine futures, since at the same time the PMI for China has  been down to  51.3 (HSBC)




US Dollar Index due to the policy of the country, it will not rise too sharply right now.



Now the gold has been break the bound but it needs to be confirmed at this moment. So I will wait and see. And I will attempt to short Aussi again due to the performance of the Copper and Zinc futures. And long a little bit of yen. But now I can't see the clear direction of EUR and GBP, the Europe is just a mess.

As for US stock, I will short at this time. And China's stock as for sure the bank will come to rescue.
The market begins to rock n' roll , let's wait and see!!!

Gold to be marked

I was just talking yesterday that the gold has reached resistance aha! IT REALLY IS, AND IT IS SO INTERESTING!!

LET'S CELEBRATE THE MARKET WITH US BACK FROM HOLIDAAY!
The 1253 to 1257 is a very strong resistance but MACD indicator is still really strong.

I sensed a lot of silly investment banks are praising the new economy recovery these days, they think the unemployment was part due to to the structure and seasonal retractions. They think the Fed is underestimated the data. How eager they are to long for the strong US dollars huh?

Another silly bubble will come if they do!!
 

Happy Martin Luther King

Today it is the off but I am very busy with the homework. The forex market is very quiet and esp the gold is just like dead meat.

The 1245 to 1253 will be a very strong resistance for the gold so after a rise just few days ago I think this will will be a down trend a little bit to be bounded by 1245 to 1253. However, once the gold hits above 1253 and will go for a very strong position, the gold will be bull in the first half of the year. And at the same time, I hold the opinion that the economy of the US will not be recovered that fast. Therefore, A little be cautious move and a little little bit of adventure will add more spicy flavor to the market. So I will short fast this week with small positions.

And as for EUR, today's data didn't seen good at all and it is quite dangerous to short again but now the price has reached a strong pivot on 1.35390 so let's do a little long first. Tomorrow will be very important for EUR since the German Economic Sentiment and this will determine the direction of EUR.

Wednesday, the AUD will have new moves on the CPI data and GBP on MPC votes.

this weeks trading pairs:
AUD/USD, GBP/USD, GBP/JPY, XAU/USD, EUR/USD, NZW/USD

The tapering effect, I suppose that the Stock market will be hitting the platform now and must down for the next few years. The forever good is no good. The rise, the palatal, and the fall this is how the world goes.

The usual and effective indicators I used in forex market

SMA(Simple Moving Average)
EMA  (expostional Moving average):  focused on recent data  10days
Pittbull book(best trader's favorite)

Stochastic Oscillator: Momentum Indicator
The fast and slow of the stochastic oscillator

The technical analysis best works in daily chart.

Relative Strengh Index(RSI)

Moving Average Covergence Divergence (MACD)
Bolling Bands ( SMA with upper and lower bands)
Once it touches the lower band, it it a sign of strong buy
Average True Range

The outlook for the next week

The forex market will seem to be dull next week I presume since there is not so much data released.

There are some important outlooks for Tuesday, core retail sales m/m, retail sales m/m

U.S. aggregate retail sales excluding automobile and gasoline sales, which are excluded due to their volatility. The figures are released monthly by the U.S. Department of Commerce about two weeks after the end of the reference month. As consumer spending accounts for more than two-thirds of the U.S. economy, the core retail sales data is an important indicator about the health of the overall economy.

This is the December data, due to the christmas, I think it will be a bit high but I still don't think that US now will gain a strong momentum in consuming. 

Wedsday: PPI m/m USD  

And also  the AUD with unemployment rate and employment change 

Thursday with Core CPI m/m and unemplyment claims 

Friday with building permits: 

Due to the release of the data, we should pay attention to the currencies pairs: 

AUD/USD, AUD/JPY, GBP, XAU/USD 

I still long AUD in the medium term since I have preference in AUD and their economy since they have very low ratio of debt. 



Keep a very fixed eye on US dollar Index it is bounding so last week the non-US currencies just skyrocketed so I think this week they will now have a fast rise but keep a quite steady bounding area.

1/10 A tough War

Today it surprises everyone on the unemployment rate and claims, it is only 75K and and it is really lower the expectation of the market.

The market just fluctuates a lot and it is really a tough war to go.

Although I was short gold at the very beginning and stop loss of 30 bucks. But I act swiftly, I am so sure that I must keep me on the right track, I long gold immediately with MQL instruction. I long 1.5 hand this morning, my strategy on news strategy is that, make a bet but act quickly!! And make a very small bet! Indeed, this strategy is particularly true in this large fluctuation. 

Sometimes I will do the scalping in this trading and it also works. 
In the market, you don't have to be greedy but you have to be discpline! 
 

And it works on the 1236 , I also long EUR at the same time.


I am still afraid of the US economy is wobbling along the way!

Let's wait and see!!

What a tough war I combat this morning!

1/8 Trading

Since  today the ADP data is beating expectation and gold dropped and I cleared all the position of gold since they have a strong sell at 1236.

However, as for others, I can't see any point of buying or selling in my system so I remain my 0 position today.

There will be more data releasing today, the unemployment rate of EUR remains the same as the last release but German gain a good sign in trade balance. Since it is a positive number, 17.8 billion . German gains really strong import sign and they have to pay for more foreign currencies on importing so it is not good for the EURO. In contrast, US gains a negative number this month which means export is more than import which will give rise demand on USD DOLLER. Today we will have FOMC meeting minutes which will be very important for the "head" to judge the economy so it will be safe until the FOMC meeting is done when we do the trading.

Good Luck!